As Nigeria approaches the general electoral season (the next one slated for 2027), career politicians have begun their shady and secret moves in the intense contest for presidential power. A recent political event, which took place on July 2nd at the Umar Musa Yar’adua center in Abuja, can be understood in this context. Here, diverse career politicians and ex-members of government gathered together to announce a new coalition platform under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) with the main intent of ousting the current ruling All Progressive Congress (APC). Present at this gathering were seasoned political nomads skilled in the act of crisscrossing political parties in their ultimate bid for access to state power. The list includes Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Nasir El-Rufai, David Mark, and Rauf Aregbesola.

Judging by the statements that were made by key political actors at the public unveiling of the coalition, one might be misled into thinking that this coalition is in solidarity with the struggles of the Nigerian people. At the public unveiling, the ADC coalition politicians declared their intent, among other things to include preventing Nigeria from descending into a one-party state and a creeping civilian dictatorship; and also made lamentations about how under Tinubu’s government, Nigerians are “wallowing in abject poverty, hunger and insecurity, without any meaningful government effort to address the situation.” The coalition went as far as declaring itself for all Nigerian people. The newly unveiled chairman speaking on the purpose of the coalition said, “Here, the North shall hold hands with the South, the youth shall stand equally with elders, women with men, the farmer with the technocrat—not for the triumph of one party, but for the triumph of Nigeria.”

What was the political process that made the ADC coalition come into being? Understanding this will let us know if, really, this is a coalition for the people. The outgoing chairman of the ADC revealed that the coalition-building effort began 18 months ago and involved over 12 National Executive Committee (NEC) meetings and consultations with stakeholders, including former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Ibrahim Babangida, as well as other political leaders.  Already, it’s clear how this coalition is not a pro-people coalition, as pronounced by its participants. It is clear that this is a coalition of stakeholders and past prominent members of the indigenous ruling class.

The majority of the Nigerian people, on whose behalf the coalition declared its mission, were indeed disregarded in the critical process of forming the coalition. The majority of workers’ unions, opposition groups, and political organizations in the country, which have been active in political education and mobilization of the Nigerian people against the neoliberal policies of the current Tinubu-led APC government, were not invited to form part of this coalition.

Examining the recent major popular mobilizations against the significant levels of hunger and hardship that have been imposed by the current government on the majority of the Nigerian people, we see the concrete absence of the coalition in these processes.

When, in June 2024, the NLC and TUC mobilized the majority of unions in Nigeria to demand a substantial increase in the minimum wage given the sharp decline in the standard of living (resulting from the astronomical increase in fuel prices and electricity tariffs, the subsidy removal and currency devaluation policies of the present APC government), the current politicians under the ADC coalition provided no concrete support to back these demands. Despite the two-day nationwide strike mobilized by the unions, which shut down large and critical sectors of the economy, the NLC and TUC eventually accepted a far lower offer than their initial minimum living wage demands without any concrete support from the ADC coalition, which was declared on behalf of the people.

Again, as the majority of Nigerians mobilized for the #EndBadGovernance protests in August 2024, the best some of the politicians involved in the ADC coalition could do was to tweet their support for the movement. The #EndBadGovernance movement was announced months in advance and garnered widespread support from Nigerians due to the popular demands being made. Still, the ADC coalition politicians deemed this people-based movement unworthy of building a structure to drive it and further push popular demands and pushbacks against the hardship policies of the Tinubu-led government.

In many other mobilizations from people-based, worker-based, and community-based organizations against the repressive policies and hardship inflicted by he current government in the past few years, the newly formed ADC coalition and the forces driving and sustaining it have been noticeably absent.

The concrete evidence on the ground therefore shows the ADC coalition to be a special-purpose platform geared towards the selfish and group interest of the so-called stakeholders and prominent politicians involved in the process leading to its formation. The politicians in the ADC coalition only do the bare minimum of offering support via their social media handles for the popular struggles and mobilizations of the Nigerian people but are willing to go as far as building an organized coalition platform, with all the concrete support and effort which that entails, for the for the main goal of winning presidential power.

The irony in all of this is that the ADC is simply following the APC’s playbook. In 2013, certain factions of the disenfranchised but influential political class (including some of the now ADC members) engaged in party mergers and alignments to form the APC in order to unseat a popular incumbent. The painful consequences of that political coalition are still being suffered by the majority of Nigerians today. One can then confidently conclude from the reality on the ground that the newly formed ADC coalition is not representative, owned, or controlled by the majority of the Nigerian people.

Despite its dubious origins and ambitions, it would be foolhardy to rule out the ADC’s prospects in the next presidential election. The control of significant resources by key political figures in the ADC coalition (mainly accumulated and multiplied during their stints in public office), the well-oiled propaganda machine surrounding political personalities in the ADC coalition, and their lasting influence in the communities and grassroots (through their well-funded organized political structures) are some of the key factors which gives the coalition a good chance of defeating the APC government.

Worse still, the low level of political education in Nigeria and the lack of a concrete, people-led organized political coalition also makes it likely that significant number of Nigerians—who are justifiably grieving and groaning under the anti-people policies of the present government—will fall into the well laid out trap of accepting the repackaged ADC coalition as a viable alternative for the development of Nigeria. Unless a genuine, people-led political option emerges, Nigeria will keep cycling through the same elite-driven failures in new disguises.